The ladder of inference

In our fast-paced age, people don't have time to think carefully about information, so most of us jump to conclusions. At best, we're corrected; at worst, it can lead to a loss of money or a deterioration in our relationship with others. It also works the other way around-your interlocutor may draw the wrong conclusions, and if you don't recognize that, you may have the incorrect information.

The Ladder of Conclusions helps you draw the correct conclusions and have constructive discussions with people.

Chris Argyris, the author of the ladder of inference, identifies seven fundamental steps we go through from information to action:

1. Obtaining data
2. Selecting data
3. Interpreting data
4. Building assumptions
5. Making conclusions
6. Assuming beliefs
7. Acting

You are surrounded by reality and facts, and the first step on the ladder of inference is to observe this information.

Example

A colleague is 20 minutes late, looking exhausted and frustrated. Without giving a reason, he joins the meeting.

We very rarely use all the available facts to make decisions. We tend to focus on specific parts of information or even certain parts that better fit our preferences or agenda.

Example

We focus only on the fact that a colleague is 20 minutes late

At this stage, we give meaning to this information based on our past experiences, biases, and beliefs.

Example

In the past, you have had to deal with a colleague who did not respect schedules and deadlines and was challenging to work with.

When we attach importance to selected data, it enables us to make assumptions, ignore all other facts, and jump to conclusions about what's happening.

Example

Your colleague is late because he doesn't take the schedule seriously.

As a result, we transform our assumptions into firm conclusions - again, without considering all the facts we might have been presented with in the beginning.

Example

Your colleague needs to be reprimanded and reminded that he must come to work on time. Otherwise, it will become an even bigger problem.

This is where problems can arise: We adopt beliefs about the situation based on the conclusions we have drawn. We then use those beliefs and experiences to form future judgments about similar scenarios.

Example

Any employee who is late pays no attention to schedules and credentials and should be treated accordingly.

Finally, based on our beliefs, we take actions that feel right to us. Then our actions change the situation and create a new set of circumstances.

Example

As a result, you tell your colleague's supervisor about the situation, asking him to take action.

Between step two (Selecting data) and step six (Accepting beliefs), there is something called the reflexive cycle, which means that the beliefs we form will influence what data we select the next time we find ourselves in a similar scenario.

Example

Since you had a negative interaction with a previous colleague who didn't show up on time, you now tend to use only selected data, focusing on lateness.

Unfortunately, this can create a toxic cycle that causes us to constantly act on limited information and misconceptions about what is happening.

In the example above, your colleague may have been late because of a sudden visit to the doctor with the baby.

The ladder of reasoning assumes that you can influence and take responsibility for your decisions. In other words, you can stop before you even take action.

Steps for going down the ladder:

1. Actions: Why do these actions or decisions seem right? What are the alternatives?
2. Beliefs: What are my beliefs about this? What are they based on? What do I believe?
3. Conclusions: Why have I reached these conclusions? What assumptions are they based on?
4. Expectations: Are my assumptions valid? Why do I think so?
5. Interpretation: Am I looking at the data objectively? What else might they mean?
6. Sample data: What other potentially essential data am I missing? Are there facts that I am intentionally ignoring? What other sources of information can help me?

Often we draw scenarios in our heads that have little to do with reality. They are imaginary, but they can hurt us and those around us.

Try to avoid such situations by simply slowing down a little. Yes, our lives are dynamic and unpredictable, but that doesn't mean we can't be objective. After all, no one demands that we make decisions in a split second.

As a rule, we always have at least a few minutes. And in that time, you can certainly set aside your assumptions and preconceptions to make the right decision.