Iceberg model

One of the models of systemic thinking that helps to understand global issues is the iceberg model.

It is known that the iceberg has only 10 percent of its mass above the water, while 90 percent stays underneath. But those 90 percents are what ocean currents act on and what shapes the iceberg at its top. In the same way, global problems can be looked at and studied.

The iceberg model is an instrument that allows us to see and understand the causes beyond the immediate events that everyone notices.

The model consists of four levels:

1. Events
2. Patterns
3. Structures
4. Mental models

The event level is the level at which we usually perceive the world. For example, waking up one morning and finding out we have caught a cold.

Although problems observed at the event level often can be resolved through simple correction. The iceberg model forces us not to assume that every problem can be solved by dealing with the symptom.

Questions to ask:

1. What do I see now?
2. What has happened?

Looking just below the surface of events, we often see patterns. Such events have been repeated in the past. Perhaps we catch colds more often when we don't get enough rest. Observing patterns can help us to predict and anticipate events.

Questions to ask:

1. What patterns/regularities can be seen?

Structure supports, creates, and influences the patterns we see in events. Structures can be understood as "the rules of the game." They can be written or unwritten; they can be physical, visible, or invisible. These are the rules, norms, policies, guiding principles, power structures, resource allocations, or informal ways of operating that have been institutionalized tacitly or explicitly.

Increased stress at work due to a new promotion policy, eating unhealthy under stress habits, or an inconvenient location for healthy food sources. All of these may be factors influencing our cold.

Structures can be:

• Physical things - vending machines, roads, traffic lights, or terrain.
• Organizations - corporations, governments, and schools.
• Policies - laws, decrees, and tax structures.
• Ritual - typical behavior so entrenched that it is not consciously recognized.

Questions to ask:

1. What can explain the patterns?
2. What is the connection between the patterns and the structures?

Mental models are the attitudes, beliefs, morals, expectations, and values that enable a system to keep functioning as it is. Those beliefs are often unconsciously extracted from our society or family, and they are most likely not conscious.

Mental models involved in colds and flu may include: the belief that career is very important to our identity, that healthy food is too expensive, or that rest is for the unmotivated.

Questions to ask:

1. What attitudes, values, and beliefs do people hold about the system?
2. What beliefs support the system?

The Iceberg Model illustrates various aspects of the problem and provides an understanding of how to implement changes to the system through so-called intervention points most effectively.

An intervention point is a place within the system (a corporation, an economy, a living organism, a city, an ecosystem) where a small shift at one point can lead to significant changes in all aspects. The lower we go in the iceberg, the more levers we have to transform the system. Changing structures and influencing mental models have a much wider and farther-reaching effect than immediately reacting and suppressing individual events.

If we only look at events, the best we can do is react. Something happens - and we try to fix it. Usually, this is our response to the first event. We do not change our thinking in any way. We act quickly to solve the immediate problem, using existing solutions which worked in the past.

This approach may work well for some superficial events, but it is sure to fail if the problem is more systemic since we are simply dealing with the symptoms of the problem and not the root causes. Thus, only the most superficial issues can be solved at this level.

When we start to notice the sequence of these events, we have more possibilities. We can predict what should happen, and we can plan it. When we start to notice patterns, we can begin to think about what is causing the same events to repeat over and over again.

When we start paying attention to the underlying structures, we begin to see where we can change what is happening. We can start to identify the thinking and mental models causing these structures to be the way they are. We are no longer in the power of the system.

Changing the model used by an organization is the highest level of influence. It can lead to fundamental transformation with the possibility of completely restructuring the system and overcoming even the most serious problems.

Problem: Low Quality of Product

1. Event Level. Many bugs were found in the latest release.
2. Pattern Level. The situation was the same in previous releases.
3. Structure Level. Little time left for testing and constant rushing with releases.
4. Mental Models Level. Quality is less important than released products.

How to improve the situation?

In this case, to improve the quality, one can attempt to make changes by creating a new mental model and structures to support it.

4. New Mental Model. Quality should be built-in; it cannot be postponed.

3. New Structure. Introducing a new rule: there should be no bugs in the backlog.

2. New Patterns. Our expectations by patterns: fewer bugs, better testing coverage.

1. New Events. No bugs in the new release.