Assumption map

Every new venture is always a risk. Sometimes a bad assumption can ruin your project or business. In light of this, it's critical to ensure you're working with valid assumptions before embarking on any development.

An assumption map can help increase the chances that your initiative will be successful.

Use the following structure to work through your assumptions with your team.

Ask everyone to answer the following questions on stickers. If necessary, rewrite the questions to fit your goals.

Business assumptions

• We will make more money with...
• The most significant risk is...
• We will solve the problem with...
• Our main competitor is...
• Our users want...

User Assumptions

• Who is our user?
• What problem does the product solve?
• When and how is our product used?

Make a matrix with certainty and risk on the axes.

Map each assumption, asking the group:

• How bad would it be if we were wrong about this?
• How sure are we about this?

Tip: suggest that the group compare assumptions with each other to find the right quadrant faster.

Perform this until you have all your assumptions on the map.

In the lower right quadrant, you have assumptions that are high risk and low certainty. They raise the issue of needing more information; they need to be investigated immediately.

The assumptions in this section are often closer to facts. Check them against your existing plan.

The assumptions in this quadrant can be seen as distractions for your team; they need to be deferred.

The assumptions in this section need to be evaluated. The result of what you discover may increase the perceived risk.

There is an excellent phrase in English: "If you assume, you make an ass out of u and me."

Predictions are things we believe (with high or little probability). Before spending time and money, it's best to organize and test those assumptions. This is recommended for all companies, from tiny startups to large enterprises. This will reduce the risk of releasing a product that is not suitable for the market.